🌾 Daily Market Update – June 23, 2025

📊 Grain Market Summary

Grains sold off to start the week as improving U.S. weather, fading momentum from Friday’s highs, and cautious macro sentiment weighed on the complex. Wheat led the decline despite elevated geopolitical tensions, highlighting how disconnected market action can be from headline risk.

🌦 Weather Outlook

🌍 Global Weather Highlights

• Brazil: Southern Brazil remains overly wet, which is slowing safrinha corn harvest progress in key producing states like Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul. However, crop quality has not shown significant deterioration yet.

• Russia: Western Russia is seeing improved rain coverage, which is aiding late-stage winter wheat development, though dryness lingers in some Volga regions.

• Australia: Eastern growing regions remain under moderate drought stress, with concern growing for the early stages of the wheat crop.

🇺🇸 U.S. Weather – Corn Belt Drought Conditions Improve

• The latest USDA drought monitor shows dramatic improvement in the core corn and soybean growing areas:

  • Only 7.5% of the Corn Belt is now considered in drought, compared to 32% earlier this year.

  • Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all showed notable gains after recent rainfall.

  • North Dakota and Nebraska also received beneficial moisture over the past 7–10 days.

• Kansas remains a concern:

  • While central and western areas saw isolated storms, the overall profile deteriorated slightly.

  • Crop-specific drought status for Kansas:

    • Corn: 17% in drought

    • Soybeans: 13%

    • Winter Wheat: 14%

    • Spring Wheat: 22%

    • Cattle grazing areas: 19%

Bottom Line: The East is saturated, the West is still thirsty—keeping weather risk alive but keeping rallies in check.

📍 Northeast Kansas Crop & Field Update

• Spotty storms brought 0.2" to 0.5" of rainfall over the weekend across parts of Nemaha, Brown, and Marshall counties.

• Corn is rapidly progressing—some fields in the V10–V12 stage; root zone moisture is holding for now but will need a recharge this week.

• Early planted soybeans are beginning to canopy, though later fields are uneven.

• Wheat harvest is getting underway in southern portions of the region with decent test weights reported, but some protein levels have been variable.

🌐 Macro & Market Movers

🔥 Middle East Tensions Shake Energy Markets — Not Grains

• The U.S. conducted targeted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure over the weekend.

• President Trump issued stern warnings of further action; Iran responded with threats of "everlasting consequences."

• Crude oil futures jumped over $10/barrel Sunday night, breaching $88 at one point, before paring back slightly as no physical disruption through the Strait of Hormuz has occurred.

• Grain markets, especially wheat, shrugged off the escalation, with futures opening sharply lower.

🌱 Soybeans & Wheat Hit Highs Friday — Then Fade

• Soybeans (Nov '25) flirted with calendar-year highs last Friday:

  • Driven by bullish biofuel policy speculation and a strengthening Brazilian real, which raised concerns about South American export competitiveness.

• Spring Wheat (Dec '25) rallied on weather concerns and flight-to-safety buying on geopolitical risk.

• But both markets faded into Friday’s close and saw follow-through selling today.

📦 Weekly Export Sales – Rebound in Volume

• Corn sales now sit +26% above last year’s pace, with Japan, Mexico, and Colombia active buyers.

• Germany’s soybean purchase was a surprise, suggesting some biofuel blending demand may be at play in the EU.

• Wheat sales were moderate; China was absent.

🍺 Ethanol Output Remains Strong, Margins Slip

• Weekly ethanol production: 1.11 million bbl/day

  • Down 1% week-over-week

  • Still up 5% from same week last year

• Stocks: 24.12 million bbl – seasonally high

• Margins are tightening, per Reuters, due to rising corn input costs and a small pullback in gasoline demand.

Despite margin compression, production remains historically strong, and exports are still outpacing early-year expectations.

🐄 Cattle on Feed Report – Mixed but Leaning Bullish

• Total on feed: 11.4 million head (↓1% YoY)

• Placements: 92% of last year – lower than expected

• Marketings: 90% of last year

• Tight supplies continue to offer support to the live cattle futures, which held up well today despite broader commodity weakness.

🔭 Looking Ahead

• Weather remains the central driver in grains. Watch for updated GFS/Euro runs tonight—especially for Kansas and Nebraska.

• Geopolitical Risk: Energy markets may remain volatile if tensions with Iran escalate. Watch crude for indirect grain influence.

• USDA Acreage & Stocks Report is due Friday, June 28 — one of the biggest reports of the summer.

  • Positioning ahead of the report may bring volatility later this week.

• Crop Condition Ratings out this afternoon — will provide the first real post-rainfall picture for the Corn Belt.

🌽 Fun Ag Fact of the Day

Corn is grown on every continent except Antarctica.
It’s one of the most versatile crops on Earth—used for food, livestock feed, fuel (ethanol), plastics, sweeteners, and even fireworks!