📅 Daily Market Update – June 11, 2025

🌾 Grain Market Summary

🌤️ Weather Update

🇺🇸 U.S. Overview

• Drier Pattern Emerging across the western and central Corn Belt.

  • Both the Euro and GFS models show notable reductions in expected rainfall for the next 7 days.

  • Iowa rainfall has been pulled from the forecast entirely in recent model runs.

• Temperatures:

  • Euro model sees normal temps over the next two weeks.

• 8–14 Day Forecast:

  • Shows possible improvement, but accuracy decreases beyond 7 days.

• Crop Conditions:

  • Corn: 97% planted; 70% rated good-to-excellent.

  • Soybeans: 90% planted; 68% rated good-to-excellent.

  • Market remains balanced, but weather is the key driver in coming weeks.

📍 Northeast Kansas (Seneca, KS – Nemaha County)

🔥 Current Conditions

• Today: Sunny, 93–94°F with breezy SW winds.

• Thursday–Friday: Mid to upper 80s, still breezy.

• Weekend Outlook: Highs near 90°F; chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms from Saturday through Monday.

🌱 Crop Impact Summary

• Heat Stress:

  • High temps and low humidity driving rapid evapotranspiration.

  • Dryland crops showing signs of leaf curl and moisture stress.

• Rain Outlook:

  • Isolated storms possible (Fri–Mon); rainfall may vary between 0.25–1.0".

  • Could delay some fieldwork depending on local storm paths.

• Disease/Pest Watch:

  • Watch for WSMV (wheat streak mosaic), root stress, spider mites, and early aphids.

🧑‍🌾 Local Agronomic Insights

• Corn/Soybeans: Early-planted fields stable; late fields could suffer without rainfall.

• Wheat: Rapid drying; disease pressure is lower than in central KS, but continued scouting is important.

• Soil Moisture: Topsoil depleting fast—rain this weekend could offer spotty relief.

🌍 Macro News

🇨🇳 U.S.–China Trade

• New trade consensus reached; U.S. to ease export controls, China to expedite rare earth shipments.

• Deal includes tariff truce, pending final approval from President Trump and China’s leadership.

• Similar to the 2018–2019 deal, which included large ag purchases (corn and soybeans).

• Market not reacting significantly yet—but optimism remains for renewed ag buying.

📊 WASDE Report – Thursday @ 11AM CST

• Expectations:

  • Corn: Lower ending stocks due to increased exports.

  • Soybeans/Wheat: Little change expected.

• Traders are positioning ahead of Thursday’s release.

🇲🇽 US–Mexico Steel Tariff Talks

• Deal nearing to reduce tariffs via a quota system.

• Mexico, the top U.S. corn buyer in 2025, sees current tariffs as unjustified.

⚖️ FTC vs John Deere – Right to Repair Case

• Judge allows FTC antitrust lawsuit to proceed.

• Issue centers on restrictions against third-party equipment repair.

• Supported by five U.S. states; Deere rejects the claims.

🇮🇳 India Grain Surplus

• Government reports record stocks:

  • Rice: 59.5 Mt (+18%)

  • Wheat: 36.9 Mt (+9%)

• May pressure global grain markets due to potential export surplus.

🌾 Global Wheat Pressure

• Despite short-term support, wheat futures remain soft.

• Reason: Durable crop outlooks, large inventories, and slowing EU exports.

🐄 Fun Ag Fact of the Day:

A group of cows is called a “kine.” While “herd” is more common, “kine” is the old English plural for cows—dating back to before the 1400s!