Nvidia (NVDA) has been at the forefront of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, and its annual GPU Technology Conference (GTC) is one of the most anticipated tech events of the year. Historically, GTC has been a platform for Nvidia to introduce game-changing innovations, from the unveiling of its Ampere and Hopper GPU architectures to major partnerships in AI and cloud computing. In 2025, GTC is set to kick off on March 17, bringing together developers, innovators, and business leaders to showcase the latest advancements in AI, high-performance computing, and emerging technologies like quantum computing. 

But the key question for investors is: Will this event actually serve as a meaningful catalyst for Nvidia’s stock price? GTC 2025 comes at a challenging time for NVDA and other AI stocks, as sentiment remains dampened by concerns over DeepSeek’s emergence, worries about the U.S. economy, and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. With that, let’s explore what investors should expect from this year’s conference and assess whether it could serve as a catalyst for the stock. 

About Nvidia Stock

With a market cap of $2.8 trillion, Nvidia (NVDA) is a premier technology firm known for its expertise in graphics processing units and artificial intelligence solutions. The company is renowned for its pioneering contributions to gaming, data centers, and AI-driven applications. NVDA’s technological solutions are developed around a platform strategy that combines hardware, systems, software, algorithms, and services to provide distinctive value. 

The tech giant has faced a challenging start to the year, weighed down by concerns ranging from the emergence of DeepSeek to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. NVDA’s stock is down 13.3% year-to-date.

Will GTC Be a Meaningful Catalyst for NVDA Stock?

Nvidia is due to host its annual GPU Technology Conference (GTC) 2025 for developers next week, running from March 17 to 21. Nvidia said the event will feature over 1,000 sessions, 2,000 speakers, and nearly 400 exhibitors. Representatives from companies like Waymo, OpenAI, Novo Nordisk (NVO), Rivian (RIVN), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Boston Dynamics will speak at the event. With more than 25,000 attendees in person and 300,000 online viewers, the event is set to be the largest AI-focused conference of the year. The highlight of the event will be CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote speech on March 18, where he is expected to unveil major advancements in AI and computing. However, the key question is whether Huang can calm investors’ nerves.  

Wall Street analysts, particularly Ben Reitzes from Melius Research, are skeptical that the company can alleviate investors’ near-term concerns, which include potential negative effects from tariffs and additional restrictions on sales to the Chinese market. Instead, GTC is expected to take a broader perspective, highlighting opportunities in robotics, AI software, autonomous driving, climate research, and drug discovery. “To all these long-term themes, we think Jensen can hit it out of the park,” Reitzes wrote in a note.

There is strong anticipation for major announcements on next-generation AI hardware, including possible updates to Nvidia’s Hopper and Blackwell architectures that power AI models and data centers. Also, Nvidia is expected to provide updates on its product roadmap extending several years into the future. For example, Reitzes anticipates that Nvidia will discuss the expected memory enhancement from its Blackwell Ultra product and preview the upcoming Rubin chip family before hinting at its plans for 2027. “We expect significant improvements in speed, memory, and power that will become even more needed in the future. These products should excite partners at the conference ranging from Microsoft to Dell to sovereigns, which normally would please investors,” Reitzes said. 

Wells Fargo’s Aaron Rakers anticipates that five topics will be covered at the event, including co-package optics, which he notes is drawing significant investor interest. “While we would be very surprised to see [co-package optics] / Silicon Photonics (SiPho) emerge at the GPU level at this year’s event (possibly in the next-gen Rubin architecture), industry reports / checks continue to point to this year’s event as showcasing some CPO integration in NVIDIA’s switch / networking portfolio,” Rakers wrote in a note.

Other key topics likely to be discussed include post-training and test-time scaling and the expansion of Nvidia’s NVLink, following the introduction of its fifth generation at last year’s event.

It is also important to note that Nvidia will host its first-ever Quantum Day at GTC on March 20. After Huang’s January comments that quantum computing might not be “very useful” for 15 to 30 years caused quantum computing stocks to plummet, the company is now convening industry leaders to discuss the future of the technology. The event will include discussions on the role of quantum computing in AI, challenges in commercialization, and potential breakthroughs, featuring executives from top quantum firms such as IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS). NVDA’s decision to host Quantum Day indicates that the company is adjusting its stance and acknowledging the potential of quantum computing sooner rather than later.

Examining historical performance, NVDA stock has outperformed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index by an average of 7 percentage points and 2.4 percentage points during the week of GTC and two weeks following GTC, according to the Wells Fargo analyst. The average returns have been 6.4% and 4.5%, respectively. With that, it remains to be seen whether NVDA’s advancements and updates at the conference will be sufficient to satisfy market watchers and drive a repeat of its historical performance pattern, especially given the current challenging environment for AI stocks.

How Did Nvidia Perform in Q4?

Nvidia released its most recent earnings results on Feb. 26. Let’s focus on the key points here. For a detailed analysis of the company’s Q4 results, feel free to check my previous article on NVDA.

Nvidia’s fourth-quarter revenue stood at a record $39.3 billion, marking a 12% increase from the previous quarter and a 78% rise year-over-year. The top line figure exceeded the company’s guidance of $37.5 billion as well as Wall Street consensus estimates of $38.2 billion. Data center revenue, which comprised 90.6% of total revenue, also reached a record $35.6 billion in Q4, up 16% sequentially and 93% year-over-year. Blackwell sales made up 31% of data center sales, while cloud service partners contributed half.

Meanwhile, management noted that Blackwell sales surpassed their expectations in Q4. The company generated $11 billion in Blackwell revenue to meet strong demand, marking the fastest product ramp in its history - unprecedented in both speed and scale. Nvidia’s EVP and CFO, Colette Kress, stated that Blackwell production is operating at full capacity across multiple configurations, with the company rapidly increasing supply to support growing customer adoption.

“Demand for Blackwell is amazing as reasoning AI adds another scaling law - increasing compute for training makes models smarter and increasing compute for long thinking makes the answer smarter,” said Huang in a statement.

Looking forward, Nvidia forecasts Q1 revenue of $43 billion, plus or minus 2%, which represents a 65% increase year-over-year and a 9% rise from the previous quarter. GAAP gross margin is projected to be 70.6%, down from 75% in FY25, primarily due to the ongoing ramp-up of Blackwell production.

NVDA Valuation and Analysts’ Estimates

According to Wall Street estimates, NVDA is expected to post a 50.66% year-over-year adjusted EPS growth to $4.50 in FY26. Analysts also project the chipmaker’s full-year revenue to grow 56.31% year-over-year to $203.98 billion.

From a valuation perspective, NVDA stock appears highly attractive at the moment. After the recent pullback, the stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 26.3x, just slightly above the sector median of 21.61x, and well below its five-year average of 47.85x. This is undoubtedly a low valuation for a company that holds a dominant position in the rapidly expanding AI market.

Options Market Sentiment on Nvidia Stock

Looking at the option chain for March 21, 2025 (the day GTC concludes), the $116.00 CALL option shows a bid/ask spread of $4.80/$4.85, while the $116.00 PUT option displays a spread of $5.15/$5.20. Remember, this option strike is the one closest to the current stock price. We can now calculate the expected price movement by using the midpoint prices of these options:

5.18 (116.00 put) + 4.82 (116.00 call) = 10.00/115.74 = 8.6%

Based on current prices and employing the long straddle strategy, the options market suggests that NVDA stock could experience a movement of about 9% by the Mar. 21 options expiration from the $116.00 strike price. That would place the stock in a trading range of about $105.8 to $125.7.

Notably, at the $116.00 strike price, open put options outnumber open call options by about 2.9 to 1, with 30,069 open puts versus 10,208 open calls. This indicates a bearish sentiment in the options market, suggesting that traders are not expecting upside for NVDA stock after the conference, likely due to ongoing concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the state of the U.S. economy.

What Do Analysts Expect for NVDA Stock?

Wall Street analysts are highly bullish on Nvidia, as evidenced by a consensus “Strong Buy” rating. Of the 44 analysts offering recommendations for the stock, 38 rate it as a “Strong Buy,” two as a “Moderate Buy,” and four recommend holding. The average price target for NVDA stock is $177.59, indicating upside potential of 54% from current levels.

On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.